Bartleby

巴托比

A question of judgment

判断力问题

A quality that is hard to define but important to possess

一种难以定义却很重要的能力

THE PANDEMIC has required many people to make difficult judgments. Politicians have had to decide which restrictions to impose on citizens’ behaviour and individuals were forced to assess how much personal risk to take. Managers, faced with tough calls like which parts of their operations to close, have not been spared.

新冠疫情迫使许多人做出艰难的判断。政客们必须决定采取哪些措施来限制民众的行动，个人必须评估自己要冒多大的风险。公司主管们也未能幸免，他们面临诸如关闭哪些业务部门等艰难的决定。

Good judgment is a quality everyone would like to have. But it is remarkably difficult to define precisely, and many people are not sure whether they personally possess it. Sir Andrew Likierman of the London Business School has spent a long time talking to leaders in a wide range of fields, from business and the army to the law and medicine, in an effort to create a framework for understanding judgment.

人人都希望自己拥有良好的判断力。但要精确地定义这种能力却相当困难，很多人也并不确定自己是否具备。伦敦商学院的安德鲁·李柯曼爵士（Sir Andrew Likierman）花了很长时间与商业、军事、法律和医学等众多领域里的领袖交流，试图创建一个框架，以更好地了解判断力。

First he had to define the word. He suggests that judgment is “the combination of personal qualities with relevant knowledge and experience to form opinions and take decisions”. And he argues that, thus defined, judgment involves a process—taking in information, deciding whom and what to trust, summarising one’s personal knowledge, checking any prior beliefs or feelings, summarising the available choices and then making the decision. At each stage, decision-makers must ask themselves questions, such as whether they have the relevant experience and expertise to make their choice, and whether the option they favour is practical.

首先，他必须给这个词下个定义。他认为，判断力是“将个人特质与相关知识和经验相结合，进而形成看法并做出决策”。他同时指出，根据该定义，判断力是这样一个过程——接收信息，判定该相信哪些人和事，总结个人知识，核查任何以往看法或感受，归纳出可做的选择，然后做出决定。在每个阶段，决策者都必须问自己一些问题，比如自己是否具备做决定的相关经验和专业知识，自己的选择是否切实可行。

Expertise can be useful in making judgments. But it is not the same thing. “Academics have expertise,” Sir Andrew observes. “They don’t necessarily have judgment.” People with judgment know when they are out of their depth in making a decision and typically then seek the advice of someone who has the right background and knowledge.

专业知识有助于做出判断。但两者不是一码事。“学者拥有专业知识，”安德鲁说，“但不一定有判断力。”有判断力的人知道，当自己缺乏能力做出决定时，通常会向有恰当背景和知识的人征求建议。

It is, of course, possible to follow all these steps and still make the wrong choice. But Sir Andrew argues that a sensible process improves the chance of getting it right. The temptation is to look at people’s track records when assessing when they have good judgment, but luck may have played a huge part. “While good judgment is important to success,” Sir Andrew cautions, “success is not a signal that there has been good judgment.”

当然，即使遵循所有这些步骤，仍可能做出错误的选择。但安德鲁认为，合理的过程可以提高做出正确选择的几率。在评估某人是否具有良好判断力时，人们往往禁不住要去看他的过往记录，但其中运气可能起了巨大的作用。“虽然良好的判断力对成功很重要，”他提醒道，“但成功并不代表过去做出了良好的判断。”

The degree of judgment required tends to increase as people take on more responsibility. Those with routine tasks generally have limited scope for judgment. Line supervisors have some discretion. For a chief executive, the proportion of decisions involving judgment is high. Deciding not to take action is also a judgment with potentially serious consequences (for example, “I won’t get vaccinated” or “I won’t pay my bills”). The world is full of people whose lack of judgment brought their careers or personal life crashing down. Many made the common mistake of assuming everything was fine.

承担更多责任的人，往往需要更好的判断力。做例行工作的人做判断的空间往往不大。生产线主管有一定的自由裁量权。而首席执行官则需要做很多涉及判断力的决策。决定不采取行动也是一种判断，它可能带来严重后果，比如“我不会接种疫苗”或者“我不会支付账单”等。世界上有太多人因为缺乏判断力而毁掉了自己的事业和人生。他们当中很多人的通病就是想当然地认为一切都好。

Some people think that good judgment is innate. Sir Andrew accepts that some individuals are born with the ability to listen, be self-aware and better understand other people: all qualities that make good judgment easier. People with good judgment tend to have a breadth of experiences and relationships that enables them to recognise parallels or analogies that others miss. The ability to be detached, both intellectually and emotionally, is also a vital component.

有些人认为良好的判断力是与生俱来的。安德鲁承认，有些人天生具有倾听、自我认知和更好地理解他人的能力：所有这些品质都有助于做出正确判断。具有良好判断力的人往往拥有广泛的经验和人际关系，从而能够发现他人看不出的相似或可类比之处。在理智和情感上都能做到独立客观，也是判断力的重要组成部分。

Others may have the wrong sort of characteristics; a tendency to ignore others, stick to rules irrespective of context, rush into action without reflection and struggle to make up their minds. Many leaders make bad judgments because they unconsciously filter the information they receive or are not sufficiently critical of what they hear or read. The danger is that people ignore insights that they don’t want to hear, a tendency that can increase with age.

还有人可能有存在于判断力不利的特质：常常忽视他人，不顾具体情况而墨守成规，不加思考匆忙行事，以及优柔寡断举棋不定。很多领导者会做出错误的判断是因为他们会在无意中筛选接收到的信息，或者对所见所闻没有足够的批判力。一种危险是人们对他们不想听到的见解置若罔闻，这种倾向会随年龄增长而加剧。

As artificial intelligence gets used for more and more routine tasks in the service sector, exercising judgment may be one area where humans retain an edge over machines. This is far from certain, however. What people perceive as good judgment may stem from the ability to spot certain cues in the environment. This ability may be unconscious, just as a dog can catch a Frisbee in mid-air without knowing how to calculate wind speed and air resistance.

如今服务业中有越来越多的常规工作使用人工智能，做判断可能是人类仍能胜机器一筹的一个环节。然而这远不是板上钉钉的事。人们所认为的良好判断力或许源于在环境中发现某些线索的能力。这种能力可能是无意识的，就像狗在不知道如何计算风速和空气阻力的情况下也能叼住空中的飞盘一样。

With enough practice, machines may be able to recognise these implicit cues and thus display the equivalent of good judgment. But then, perhaps humans can be taught, too. In the long run one of the trickiest aspects of human judgment may be knowing precisely when to let machines take decisions and when to leave it to people.

经过足够多的训练，机器或许能够识别这些隐含的线索，从而展示出某种相当于良好判断力的东西。不过话说回来，也许人类同样可以通过训练做到这点。从长远来看，人类判断力中最棘手的环节之一可能恰恰是知道什么时候把做决策交给机器，什么时候留给人。